New Hampshire Wildcats at Merrimack Warriors
TV · ESPN+
At lock UNH 23.00–25.87 MRMK · 2.4 pts over 46.5
B. Bentley · UNH
QBJ. Smith · UNH
DefensesJ. Kelly · UNH
WRA. Hairston Jr · MRMK
QBM. Latham · MRMK
DefensesA. Palmer · MRMK
WR
At lock: projected UNH 23.00–25.87 MRMK
Model vs market
Gap: +4.1 margin, +7.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: UNH vs MRMK
The model
How this number was built
UNH 23.00–25.87 MRMK · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.9 vs -4.4 · model MRMK 29.7–24.0 UNH
- Home field+3.0 pts to MRMK
- RecordMRMK 2-5 · UNH 2-6
- Market priorBlended 67% toward MRMK -1.5 / total 46.5
Season leaders
Brooks BentleyPass 125/203, 1364 YDS, 7 TD, 4 INT
Joquez SmithRush 91 CAR, 460 YDS, 5 TD
Ja'Carree KellyRec 37 REC, 408 YDS, 1 TD
AJ Hairston JrPass 82/152, 958 YDS, 6 TD, 6 INT- Matthias LathamRush 89 CAR, 469 YDS, 3 TD
- Austin PalmerRec 19 REC, 238 YDS, 2 TD
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UNH | MRMK | |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 19.6 | 17.0 |
| Total Yards | 288.9 | 333.1 |
| Yards Passing | 196.4 | 170.3 |
| Yards Rushing | 92.5 | 162.9 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 34.4 | 30.4 |
| Yards Allowed | 429.0 | 356.4 |
| Pass Yards Allowed | 187.3 | 242.6 |
| Rush Yards Allowed | 241.8 | 113.9 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
New Hampshire vs Merrimack prediction · Oct 24, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 46.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected New Hampshire 23.0, Merrimack 25.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Merrimack 57%, New Hampshire 43%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day