NCAAFSat 12:00 PM CTHarold Alfond Sports Stadium

Campbell Fighting Camels at Maine Black Bears

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Sat 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

ME +8.5

56%

At lock CAM 30.14–24.14 ME · ME by 2.5 pts vs ME +8.5

Players

K. Sixkiller · CAM
QB
J. Cowan · CAM
Defenses
J. Waiters · CAM
WR
E. Buehler · ME
QB
R. Marshall · ME
Defenses
N. Laughlin · ME
Defenses

Campbell Fighting Camels

6-1

30.14

Projected

Maine Black Bears

1-6 · computer pick

24.14

CAM 64%ME 36%

At lock: projected CAM 30.14–24.14 ME

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

ME -4.6

CAM -8.5

Total

53.3

54.5

Gap: +13.1 margin, -1.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: CAM vs ME

The model

How this number was built

CAM 30.14–24.14 ME · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -5.2 vs -6.0 · model ME 29.0–24.3 CAM
Home field
+3.0 pts to ME
Record
ME 1-6 · CAM 6-1
Market prior
Blended 81% toward CAM -8.5 / total 54.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Kamden Sixkiller
Pass 159/237, 1899 YDS, 15 TD, 6 INT
JJ Cowan
Rush 75 CAR, 471 YDS, 3 TD
Jyron Waiters
Rec 28 REC, 342 YDS, 4 TD

Eddie Buehler
Pass 84/154, 828 YDS, 4 TD, 6 INT
Rashawn Marshall
Rush 96 CAR, 410 YDS, 3 TD
Nick Laughlin
Rec 30 REC, 297 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CAM	ME
Points Per Game	32.6	14.4
Total Yards	455.0	281.9
Yards Passing	280.4	182.7
Yards Rushing	174.6	99.1
Points Allowed Per Game	27.6	28.9
Yards Allowed	401.3	388.6
Pass Yards Allowed	285.0	207.0
Rush Yards Allowed	116.3	181.6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Campbell vs Maine prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is ME +8.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Campbell 30.1, Maine 24.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Maine 36%, Campbell 64%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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