NCAAFSat 12:00 PM CTKelly/Shorts Stadium

Miami (OH) RedHawks at Central Michigan Chippewas

TV · ESPN+

Sat 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 43.5

52%

M-OH 23.05–20.81 CMU

Miami (OH) RedHawks

4-3 · W2

188 PF · 179 PA

23.05

Projected

Central Michigan Chippewas

3-4 · L2

116 PF · 179 PA

20.81

M-OH 55%CMU 45%

Projected M-OH 23.05–20.81 CMU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

M-OH -1.7

M-OH -2.5

Total

44.6

43.5

Gap: +0.8 margin, +1.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: M-OH vs CMU

The model

How this number was built

M-OH 23.05–20.81 CMU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
CMU -14.3 vs M-OH -9.8 · pred margin -2.2
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.1 vs +1.5 · model CMU 22.4–24.6 M-OH
Home field
+3.0 pts to CMU
Record
CMU 3-4 · M-OH 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward M-OH -2.5 / total 43.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

David McComb
Pass 65/103, 1121 YDS, 7 TD, 1 INT
Rodney Nelson
Rush 68 CAR, 348 YDS, 2 TD
Maleek Huggins
Rec 17 REC, 309 YDS, 1 TD

Angel Flores
Pass 54/92, 475 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
Angel Flores
Rush 128 CAR, 618 YDS, 4 TD
Langston Lewis
Rec 14 REC, 216 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	M-OH	CMU
Points Per Game	26.9	16.6
Total Yards	357.9	292.4
Yards Passing	216.4	108.1
Yards Rushing	141.4	184.3
Points Allowed Per Game	25.6	25.6
Yards Allowed	376.1	358.6
Pass Yards Allowed	276.9	174.3
Rush Yards Allowed	99.3	184.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Miami OH vs C Michigan prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 43.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projects Miami OH 23.1, C Michigan 20.8. Model win probability: C Michigan 45%, Miami OH 55%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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