NCAAFSat 11:00 AM CTWaldo Stadium

Bowling Green Falcons at Western Michigan Broncos

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Computer pick · Total

Over 43.5

52%

At lock BGSU 14.82–29.58 WMU · 0.9 pts over 43.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

J. Kastantin · BGSU
QB
A. Dendy · BGSU
RB
W. Sharp · BGSU
WR
B. Lowry · WMU
QB
J. Buckley · WMU
RB
A. Chenault · WMU
WR

Bowling Green Falcons

2-6 · L2

150 PF · 238 PA

14.82

Projected

Western Michigan Broncos

5-3 · L1

213 PF · 163 PA

29.58

BGSU 18%WMU 82%

At lock: projected BGSU 14.82–29.58 WMU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

WMU -17.3

WMU -14.0

Total

44.3

43.5

Gap: +3.3 margin, +0.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: BGSU vs WMU

The model

How this number was built

BGSU 14.82–29.58 WMU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
WMU -3.1 vs BGSU -17.9 · pred margin +15.1
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +3.8 vs -4.6 · model WMU 31.2–14.9 BGSU
Home field
+3.0 pts to WMU
Record
WMU 5-3 · BGSU 2-6
Market prior
Blended 66% toward WMU -14 / total 43.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jay Kastantin
Pass 130/194, 1418 YDS, 10 TD, 6 INT
Austyn Dendy
Rush 104 CAR, 371 YDS, 4 TD
Winn Sharp
Rec 25 REC, 305 YDS, 1 TD

Broc Lowry
Pass 112/176, 1251 YDS, 10 TD, 3 INT
Jalen Buckley
Rush 120 CAR, 634 YDS, 8 TD
Aveion Chenault
Rec 28 REC, 431 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BGSU	WMU
Points Per Game	18.8	26.6
Total Yards	287.8	325.9
Yards Passing	179.8	163.8
Yards Rushing	108.0	162.1
Points Allowed Per Game	29.8	20.4
Yards Allowed	383.1	368.6
Pass Yards Allowed	168.4	216.4
Rush Yards Allowed	214.8	152.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Bowling Green vs W Michigan prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 43.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected Bowling Green 14.8, W Michigan 29.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: W Michigan 82%, Bowling Green 18%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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