NCAAFSat 11:00 AM CTGlass Bowl

Western Michigan Broncos at Toledo Rockets

TV · CBSSN

Sat 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Spread

TOL -3.5

54%

WMU 21.00–24.71 TOL

Western Michigan Broncos

5-2 · W3

175 PF · 118 PA

21.00

Projected

Toledo Rockets

5-2 · W1 · computer pick

254 PF · 165 PA

24.71

WMU 41%TOL 59%

Projected WMU 21.00–24.71 TOL

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

TOL -4.1

TOL -3.5

Total

46.1

45.5

Gap: +0.6 margin, +0.6 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: WMU vs TOL

The model

How this number was built

WMU 21.00–24.71 TOL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
TOL -3.4 vs WMU -2.5 · pred margin +3.7
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +7.4 vs +4.0 · model TOL 28.1–19.4 WMU
Home field
+3.0 pts to TOL
Record
TOL 5-2 · WMU 5-2
Market prior
Blended 67% toward TOL -3.5 / total 45.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Broc Lowry
Pass 100/147, 1044 YDS, 8 TD, 1 INT
Jalen Buckley
Rush 102 CAR, 542 YDS, 7 TD
Aveion Chenault
Rec 22 REC, 326 YDS, 1 TD

John Alan Richter
Pass 144/218, 1853 YDS, 14 TD, 1 INT
CJ Miller
Rush 76 CAR, 426 YDS, 6 TD
Adjatay Dabbs
Rec 32 REC, 468 YDS, 5 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	WMU	TOL
Points Per Game	25.0	36.3
Total Yards	322.3	458.4
Yards Passing	157.6	273.4
Yards Rushing	164.7	185.0
Points Allowed Per Game	16.9	23.6
Yards Allowed	336.3	322.0
Pass Yards Allowed	191.4	197.0
Rush Yards Allowed	144.9	125.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

W Michigan vs Toledo prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is TOL -3.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projects W Michigan 21.0, Toledo 24.7. Model win probability: Toledo 59%, W Michigan 41%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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