NCAAFSat 2:30 PM CTScheumann Stadium

Sacramento State Hornets at Ball State Cardinals

TV · ESPN+

Sat 2:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

SAC +11.5

51%

SAC 19.78–30.92 BALL

Sacramento State Hornets

1-6 · L5 · computer pick

105 PF · 229 PA

19.78

Projected

Ball State Cardinals

2-5 · W1

142 PF · 265 PA

30.92

SAC 25%BALL 75%

Projected SAC 19.78–30.92 BALL

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

BALL -10.4

BALL -11.5

Total

51.1

50.5

Gap: -1.1 margin, +0.6 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: SAC vs BALL

The model

How this number was built

SAC 19.78–30.92 BALL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
BALL -21.1 vs SAC -32.4 · pred margin +11.1
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -8.4 vs -7.4 · model BALL 27.1–25.4 SAC
Home field
+3.0 pts to BALL
Record
BALL 2-5 · SAC 1-6
Market prior
Blended 67% toward BALL -11.5 / total 50.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jackson Sharman
Pass 106/191, 1070 YDS, 6 TD, 6 INT
Isaiah Ene
Rush 48 CAR, 246 YDS, 1 TD
Matt Coleman
Rec 36 REC, 473 YDS, 4 TD

Keldric Luster
Pass 119/184, 1066 YDS, 7 TD, 4 INT
TJ Horton
Rush 59 CAR, 392 YDS, 7 TD
Donovan Hamilton
Rec 22 REC, 273 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SAC	BALL
Points Per Game	15.0	20.3
Total Yards	302.7	326.1
Yards Passing	195.1	190.9
Yards Rushing	107.6	135.3
Points Allowed Per Game	32.7	37.9
Yards Allowed	365.0	445.3
Pass Yards Allowed	188.9	243.7
Rush Yards Allowed	176.1	201.6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Sacramento St vs Ball State prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is SAC +11.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projects Sacramento St 19.8, Ball State 30.9. Model win probability: Ball State 75%, Sacramento St 25%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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