NCAAFSat 12:00 PM CTZoeller Field at Dix Stadium

Akron Zips at Kent State Golden Flashes

TV · ESPN+

Sat 12:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 46.5

52%

AKR 22.10–24.75 KENT

Akron Zips

1-6 · L5

132 PF · 227 PA

22.10

Projected

Kent State Golden Flashes

2-5 · L3

84 PF · 224 PA

24.75

AKR 44%KENT 56%

Projected AKR 22.10–24.75 KENT

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

KENT -1.9

KENT -3.0

Total

47.6

46.5

Gap: -1.1 margin, +1.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: AKR vs KENT

The model

How this number was built

AKR 22.10–24.75 KENT · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
KENT -22.3 vs AKR -22.1 · pred margin +2.6
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -8.2 vs -6.2 · model KENT 25.0–24.9 AKR
Home field
+3.0 pts to KENT
Record
KENT 2-5 · AKR 1-6
Market prior
Blended 67% toward KENT -3 / total 46.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Brayden Roggow
Pass 92/156, 1068 YDS, 7 TD, 8 INT
Jordan Gant
Rush 99 CAR, 456 YDS, 4 TD
Marcel Williams
Rec 31 REC, 332 YDS, 3 TD

Dru DeShields
Pass 106/185, 1145 YDS, 4 TD, 6 INT
Mason King
Rush 52 CAR, 202 YDS, 1 TD
Wayne Harris
Rec 31 REC, 396 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	AKR	KENT
Points Per Game	18.9	12.0
Total Yards	339.6	273.1
Yards Passing	206.9	170.6
Yards Rushing	132.7	102.6
Points Allowed Per Game	32.4	32.0
Yards Allowed	417.7	363.7
Pass Yards Allowed	217.3	222.3
Rush Yards Allowed	200.4	141.4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Akron vs Kent State prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 46.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projects Akron 22.1, Kent State 24.8. Model win probability: Kent State 56%, Akron 44%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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