NCAAFSat 2:30 PM CTFargodome

UTEP Miners at North Dakota State Bison

TV · MW+

Sat 2:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 43.5

54%

At lock UTEP 9.67–35.74 NDSU · 1.9 pts over 43.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

E. Colson Jr. · UTEP
QB
R. Moore III · UTEP
QB
K. Thomas · UTEP
RB
N. Hayes · NDSU
QB
M. Mitchell · NDSU
RB
J. Williams · NDSU
WR

UTEP Miners

1-6 · L5

106 PF · 261 PA

9.67

Projected

North Dakota State Bison

6-2 · L1

222 PF · 100 PA

35.74

UTEP 5%NDSU 95%

At lock: projected UTEP 9.67–35.74 NDSU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

NDSU -27.1

NDSU -25.5

Total

45.3

43.5

Gap: +1.6 margin, +1.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UTEP vs NDSU

The model

How this number was built

UTEP 9.67–35.74 NDSU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
NDSU -0.2 vs UTEP -24.2 · pred margin +26.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +6.0 vs -9.4 · model NDSU 38.3–11.0 UTEP
Home field
+3.0 pts to NDSU
Record
NDSU 6-2 · UTEP 1-6
Market prior
Blended 67% toward NDSU -25.5 / total 43.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

EJ Colson Jr.
Pass 55/83, 628 YDS, 7 TD, 3 INT
Raymond Moore III
Rush 67 CAR, 414 YDS, 2 TD
Kam Thomas
Rec 16 REC, 270 YDS, 1 TD

Nathan Hayes
Pass 123/196, 1470 YDS, 12 TD, 7 INT
Myles Mitchell
Rush 90 CAR, 393 YDS, 3 TD
Jackson Williams
Rec 32 REC, 503 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	UTEP	NDSU
Points Per Game	15.1	27.8
Total Yards	286.3	348.1
Yards Passing	151.9	188.6
Yards Rushing	134.4	159.5
Points Allowed Per Game	37.3	12.5
Yards Allowed	398.3	250.1
Pass Yards Allowed	204.9	128.6
Rush Yards Allowed	193.4	121.5

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

UTEP vs N Dakota St prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 43.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected UTEP 9.7, N Dakota St 35.7 when the pick locked. Model win probability: N Dakota St 95%, UTEP 5%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day