New Mexico Lobos at San José State Spartans
TV · MW+
At lock UNM 29.56–13.88 SJSU · 1.9 pts over 41.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
T. Fa'avae · UNM
QBS. Humphrey · UNM
RBC. Keith · UNM
TEL. Weaver · SJSU
QBJ. Bates · SJSU
RBC. Clark · SJSU
WR
At lock: projected UNM 29.56–13.88 SJSU
Model vs market
Gap: -3.6 margin, +1.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: UNM vs SJSU
The model
How this number was built
UNM 29.56–13.88 SJSU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexSJSU -13.3 vs UNM +7.9 · pred margin -15.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.7 vs +10.0 · model SJSU 14.7–32.7 UNM
- Home field+3.0 pts to SJSU
- RecordSJSU 4-4 · UNM 6-1
- Market priorBlended 67% toward UNM -14.5 / total 41.5
Season leaders
Toa Fa'avaePass 49/87, 790 YDS, 5 TD, 4 INT
Scottre HumphreyRush 95 CAR, 453 YDS, 9 TD
Cade KeithRec 20 REC, 265 YDS, 2 TD
Luke WeaverPass 138/219, 1620 YDS, 11 TD, 6 INT
Jabari BatesRush 131 CAR, 586 YDS, 1 TD
Carson ClarkRec 47 REC, 551 YDS, 5 TD
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UNM | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 37.0 | 20.4 |
| Total Yards | 363.9 | 362.1 |
| Yards Passing | 153.3 | 232.6 |
| Yards Rushing | 210.6 | 129.5 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 11.3 | 22.5 |
| Yards Allowed | 261.0 | 379.9 |
| Pass Yards Allowed | 174.6 | 237.1 |
| Rush Yards Allowed | 86.4 | 142.8 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
New Mexico vs San José St prediction · Oct 31, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 41.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected New Mexico 29.6, San José St 13.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: San José St 17%, New Mexico 83%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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