NCAAFFri 8:00 PM CTWar Memorial Stadium

Air Force Falcons at Wyoming Cowboys

TV · CW

Fri 8:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

WYO +6

51%

AFA 26.20–19.32 WYO

Air Force Falcons

5-1 · W4

185 PF · 118 PA

26.20

Projected

Wyoming Cowboys

4-3 · W2 · computer pick

128 PF · 146 PA

19.32

AFA 66%WYO 34%

Projected AFA 26.20–19.32 WYO

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

AFA -8.7

AFA -6.0

Total

45.6

45.5

Gap: -2.7 margin, +0.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: AFA vs WYO

The model

How this number was built

AFA 26.20–19.32 WYO · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
WYO -15.4 vs AFA -2.1 · pred margin -6.9
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.1 vs +3.3 · model WYO 20.3–25.4 AFA
Home field
+3.0 pts to WYO
Record
WYO 4-3 · AFA 5-1
Market prior
Blended 68% toward AF -6 / total 45.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Liam Szarka
Pass 19/38, 296 YDS, 1 TD, 4 INT
Liam Szarka
Rush 92 CAR, 391 YDS, 7 TD
Simon Kibbee
Rec 7 REC, 121 YDS

Tyler Hughes
Pass 98/155, 1018 YDS, 3 TD, 7 INT
Tyler Hughes
Rush 89 CAR, 459 YDS, 5 TD
Kyle Frendt
Rec 11 REC, 216 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	AFA	WYO
Points Per Game	30.8	18.3
Total Yards	408.0	331.6
Yards Passing	65.0	146.4
Yards Rushing	343.0	185.1
Points Allowed Per Game	19.7	20.9
Yards Allowed	295.7	366.4
Pass Yards Allowed	172.3	194.3
Rush Yards Allowed	123.3	172.1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Air Force vs Wyoming prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is WYO +6, with a 51% model probability. The model projects Air Force 26.2, Wyoming 19.3. Model win probability: Wyoming 34%, Air Force 66%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day