UAB Blazers at South Florida Bulls
TV · ESPNU
At lock UAB 17.24–26.88 USF · USF by 9.6 pts vs USF -7.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
R. Burton · UAB
QBR. Robinson II · UAB
RBC. Smith · UAB
WRM. Van Buren Jr. · USF
QBD.J. Crowther · USF
RBB. Rodgers · USF
WR
At lock: projected UAB 17.24–26.88 USF
Model vs market
Gap: +8.4 margin, +2.6 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: UAB vs USF
The model
How this number was built
UAB 17.24–26.88 USF · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexUSF -2.1 vs UAB -13.7 · pred margin +9.1
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +7.9 vs -2.0 · model USF 34.9–16.1 UAB
- Home field+3.0 pts to USF
- RecordUSF 5-2 · UAB 4-3
- Market priorBlended 81% toward USF -7.5 / total 42.5
Season leaders
Ryder BurtonPass 91/167, 1184 YDS, 6 TD, 5 INT
Rod Robinson IIRush 101 CAR, 436 YDS
CJ SmithRec 19 REC, 350 YDS, 1 TD
Michael Van Buren Jr.Pass 115/179, 1266 YDS, 6 TD
D.J. CrowtherRush 105 CAR, 518 YDS, 7 TD
Bryson RodgersRec 30 REC, 334 YDS, 2 TD
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UAB | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 23.3 | 26.6 |
| Total Yards | 339.0 | 325.7 |
| Yards Passing | 171.0 | 183.9 |
| Yards Rushing | 168.0 | 141.9 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 24.6 | 15.1 |
| Yards Allowed | 316.6 | 325.1 |
| Pass Yards Allowed | 126.0 | 181.0 |
| Rush Yards Allowed | 190.6 | 144.1 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
UAB vs South Florida prediction · Oct 31, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is USF -7.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected UAB 17.2, South Florida 26.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: South Florida 71%, UAB 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day