NCAAFSat 2:00 PM CTDowdy-Ficklen Stadium

Temple Owls at East Carolina Pirates

TV · ESPN+

Sat 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 49.5

53%

At lock TEM 22.19–28.78 ECU · 1.5 pts over 49.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

A. Sheppard · TEM
QB
K. Mason · TEM
RB
C. Chase · TEM
WR
E. Williams · ECU
QB
T. Engleman Jr. · ECU
RB
R. Joseph Jr. · ECU
WR

Temple Owls

2-5 · L2

180 PF · 196 PA

22.19

Projected

East Carolina Pirates

3-4 · L2

175 PF · 184 PA

28.78

TEM 34%ECU 66%

At lock: projected TEM 22.19–28.78 ECU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

ECU -8.2

ECU -6.0

Total

50.9

49.5

Gap: +2.2 margin, +1.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: TEM vs ECU

The model

How this number was built

TEM 22.19–28.78 ECU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
ECU -4.2 vs TEM -9.1 · pred margin +6.7
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +2.7 vs -0.8 · model ECU 31.4–22.6 TEM
Home field
+3.0 pts to ECU
Record
ECU 3-4 · TEM 2-5
Market prior
Blended 67% toward ECU -6 / total 49.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Ajani Sheppard
Pass 74/120, 1127 YDS, 8 TD
Keveun Mason
Rush 94 CAR, 513 YDS, 3 TD
Colin Chase
Rec 18 REC, 308 YDS, 2 TD

Emory Williams
Pass 73/117, 716 YDS, 7 TD, 2 INT
TJ Engleman Jr.
Rush 89 CAR, 582 YDS, 4 TD
Ray Ray Joseph Jr.
Rec 31 REC, 285 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TEM	ECU
Points Per Game	25.7	25.0
Total Yards	385.7	350.9
Yards Passing	183.6	194.6
Yards Rushing	202.1	156.3
Points Allowed Per Game	28.0	26.3
Yards Allowed	404.6	348.9
Pass Yards Allowed	238.7	206.4
Rush Yards Allowed	165.9	142.4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Temple vs East Carolina prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 49.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Temple 22.2, East Carolina 28.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: East Carolina 66%, Temple 34%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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