NCAAFSat 7:00 PM CTSimmons Bank Liberty Stadium

Army Black Knights at Memphis Tigers

TV · ESPNU

Sat 7:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 58.5

52%

At lock ARMY 25.77–31.85 MEM · 0.9 pts under 58.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

C. Hellums · ARMY
QB
S. Howard · ARMY
WR
M. Stokes · MEM
QB
J. Carter · MEM
RB
H. Tipton · MEM
TE

Army Black Knights

5-2 · W3

247 PF · 155 PA

25.77

Projected

Memphis Tigers

6-2 · W1

289 PF · 190 PA

31.85

ARMY 35%MEM 65%

At lock: projected ARMY 25.77–31.85 MEM

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

MEM -5.2

MEM -6.5

Total

57.7

58.5

Gap: -1.3 margin, -0.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ARMY vs MEM

The model

How this number was built

ARMY 25.77–31.85 MEM · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
MEM +1.9 vs ARMY -0.3 · pred margin +6.1
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +6.6 vs +5.3 · model MEM 30.5–25.3 ARMY
Home field
+3.0 pts to MEM
Record
MEM 6-2 · ARMY 5-2
Market prior
Blended 67% toward MEM -6.5 / total 58.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Cale Hellums
Pass 39/69, 422 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
Cale Hellums
Rush 159 CAR, 840 YDS, 16 TD
Samari Howard
Rec 11 REC, 116 YDS

Marcus Stokes
Pass 150/224, 2161 YDS, 21 TD, 6 INT
Jaylin Carter
Rush 128 CAR, 833 YDS, 8 TD
Hunter Tipton
Rec 30 REC, 409 YDS, 5 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ARMY	MEM
Points Per Game	35.3	36.1
Total Yards	420.6	508.3
Yards Passing	74.9	280.5
Yards Rushing	345.7	227.8
Points Allowed Per Game	22.1	23.8
Yards Allowed	374.0	378.5
Pass Yards Allowed	226.0	207.1
Rush Yards Allowed	148.0	171.4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Army vs Memphis prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 58.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected Army 25.8, Memphis 31.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Memphis 65%, Army 35%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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