Tulane Green Wave at Charlotte 49ers
TV · ESPN2
At lock TULN 29.84–17.74 CLT · TULN by 12.1 pts vs TULN -10 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
K. Semonza · TULN
QBJ. Daniels · TULN
RBD. Hill · TULN
WRC. Gonzales · CLT
QBH. Rutledge · CLT
RBJ. Barnes · CLT
WR
At lock: projected TULN 29.84–17.74 CLT
Model vs market
Gap: -5.4 margin, +1.0 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: TULN vs CLT
The model
How this number was built
TULN 29.84–17.74 CLT · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexCLT -22.0 vs TULN -4.0 · pred margin -11.8
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -10.9 vs +1.7 · model CLT 16.7–33.1 TULN
- Home field+3.0 pts to CLT
- RecordCLT 1-6 · TULN 3-4
- Market priorBlended 67% toward TULN -10 / total 46.5
Season leaders
Kadin SemonzaPass 64/119, 804 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
Johnnie DanielsRush 66 CAR, 394 YDS, 4 TD
Destyn HillRec 26 REC, 339 YDS, 2 TD
Cole GonzalesPass 79/127, 802 YDS, 3 TD, 7 INT
Henry RutledgeRush 52 CAR, 331 YDS, 1 TD
Jaden BarnesRec 40 REC, 396 YDS
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TULN | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 20.3 | 19.1 |
| Total Yards | 332.0 | 310.9 |
| Yards Passing | 191.9 | 199.9 |
| Yards Rushing | 140.1 | 111.0 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 24.6 | 40.6 |
| Yards Allowed | 416.3 | 465.1 |
| Pass Yards Allowed | 203.1 | 278.0 |
| Rush Yards Allowed | 213.1 | 187.1 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Tulane vs Charlotte prediction · Oct 30, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is TULN -10, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Tulane 29.8, Charlotte 17.7 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Charlotte 23%, Tulane 77%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day