NCAAFThu 6:30 PM CTDATCU Stadium

Florida Atlantic Owls at North Texas Mean Green

TV · ESPN

Thu 6:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

UNT -13.5

53%

At lock FAU 30.25–45.03 UNT · UNT by 14.8 pts vs UNT -13.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

C. Veltkamp · FAU
QB
E. Ervin · FAU
RB
E. Messer · FAU
WR
T. Jackson · UNT
QB
J. White · UNT
RB
J. Stevenson · UNT
WR

Florida Atlantic Owls

5-2 · W1

261 PF · 238 PA

30.25

Projected

North Texas Mean Green

5-2 · W4 · computer pick

302 PF · 214 PA

45.03

FAU 18%UNT 82%

At lock: projected FAU 30.25–45.03 UNT

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

UNT -16.9

UNT -13.5

Total

75.3

75.5

Gap: +3.4 margin, -0.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: FAU vs UNT

The model

How this number was built

FAU 30.25–45.03 UNT · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
UNT +2.7 vs FAU -10.9 · pred margin +14.6
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +8.8 vs -0.3 · model UNT 46.1–28.7 FAU
Home field
+3.0 pts to UNT
Record
UNT 5-2 · FAU 5-2
Market prior
Blended 67% toward UNT -13.5 / total 75.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Caden Veltkamp
Pass 190/260, 2084 YDS, 18 TD, 4 INT
Ethan Ervin
Rush 87 CAR, 368 YDS, 2 TD
Easton Messer
Rec 58 REC, 709 YDS, 6 TD

Tayven Jackson
Pass 160/221, 2173 YDS, 18 TD, 5 INT
Jahiem White
Rush 116 CAR, 861 YDS, 11 TD
Justin Stevenson
Rec 41 REC, 662 YDS, 7 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	FAU	UNT
Points Per Game	37.3	43.1
Total Yards	428.1	525.7
Yards Passing	312.1	341.0
Yards Rushing	116.0	184.7
Points Allowed Per Game	34.0	30.6
Yards Allowed	443.9	380.6
Pass Yards Allowed	185.6	206.4
Rush Yards Allowed	258.3	174.1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

FAU vs North Texas prediction · Oct 29, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is UNT -13.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected FAU 30.3, North Texas 45.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: North Texas 82%, FAU 18%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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