NCAAFSat 7:00 PM CTYulman Stadium

UTSA Roadrunners at Tulane Green Wave

TV · ESPNU

Sat 7:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

TULN +1.5

54%

UTSA 25.78–25.86 TULN

UTSA Roadrunners

6-1 · W4

226 PF · 189 PA

25.78

Projected

Tulane Green Wave

3-3 · W1 · computer pick

123 PF · 130 PA

25.86

UTSA 50%TULN 50%

Projected UTSA 25.78–25.86 TULN

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

TULN -3.4

UTSA -1.5

Total

51.9

51.5

Gap: +4.9 margin, +0.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UTSA vs TULN

The model

How this number was built

UTSA 25.78–25.86 TULN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
TULN -1.2 vs UTSA -1.9 · pred margin +0.1
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +3.1 vs +3.6 · model TULN 27.7–25.2 UTSA
Home field
+3.0 pts to TULN
Record
TULN 3-3 · UTSA 6-1
Market prior
Blended 68% toward UTSA -1.5 / total 51.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Owen McCown
Pass 153/220, 1578 YDS, 10 TD, 2 INT
Will Henderson III
Rush 94 CAR, 562 YDS, 4 TD
DJ Allen Jr.
Rec 24 REC, 325 YDS, 2 TD

Kadin Semonza
Pass 64/119, 804 YDS, 4 TD, 2 INT
Maurice Turner
Rush 37 CAR, 315 YDS, 2 TD
Destyn Hill
Rec 21 REC, 285 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	UTSA	TULN
Points Per Game	32.3	20.5
Total Yards	411.1	332.0
Yards Passing	231.7	179.7
Yards Rushing	179.4	152.3
Points Allowed Per Game	27.0	21.7
Yards Allowed	400.0	419.7
Pass Yards Allowed	199.7	208.2
Rush Yards Allowed	200.3	211.5

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

UTSA vs Tulane prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is TULN +1.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projects UTSA 25.8, Tulane 25.9. Model win probability: Tulane 50%, UTSA 50%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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