NCAAFSat 11:00 AM CTFlagler Credit Union Stadium

Rice Owls at Florida Atlantic Owls

TV · ESPNU

Sat 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Spread

FAU -10

52%

RICE 22.94–32.77 FAU

Rice Owls

1-6 · L6

119 PF · 203 PA

22.94

Projected

Florida Atlantic Owls

4-2 · L1 · computer pick

210 PF · 189 PA

32.77

RICE 27%FAU 73%

Projected RICE 22.94–32.77 FAU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

FAU -9.5

FAU -10.0

Total

56.2

55.5

Gap: -0.5 margin, +0.7 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: RICE vs FAU

The model

How this number was built

RICE 22.94–32.77 FAU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
FAU -10.1 vs RICE -15.4 · pred margin +9.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -0.0 vs -5.8 · model FAU 35.0–22.8 RICE
Home field
+3.0 pts to FAU
Record
FAU 4-2 · RICE 1-6
Market prior
Blended 68% toward FAU -10 / total 55.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jacurri Brown
Pass 40/83, 478 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
Jacurri Brown
Rush 118 CAR, 668 YDS, 6 TD
Jordan Clark
Rec 18 REC, 223 YDS

Caden Veltkamp
Pass 161/223, 1745 YDS, 15 TD, 3 INT
Ethan Ervin
Rush 81 CAR, 361 YDS, 2 TD
Kelby Valsin
Rec 47 REC, 601 YDS, 6 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	RICE	FAU
Points Per Game	17.0	35.0
Total Yards	318.6	422.7
Yards Passing	79.7	307.7
Yards Rushing	238.9	115.0
Points Allowed Per Game	29.0	31.5
Yards Allowed	372.4	416.5
Pass Yards Allowed	189.0	198.3
Rush Yards Allowed	183.4	218.2

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Rice vs FAU prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is FAU -10, with a 52% model probability. The model projects Rice 22.9, FAU 32.8. Model win probability: FAU 73%, Rice 27%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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