NCAAFFri 7:30 PM CTH. A. Chapman Stadium

Army Black Knights at Tulsa Golden Hurricane

TV · ESPN2

Fri 7:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

ARMY +1.5

55%

ARMY 26.37–26.80 TLSA

Army Black Knights

4-2 · W2 · computer pick

209 PF · 120 PA

26.37

Projected

Tulsa Golden Hurricane

4-3 · W1

203 PF · 157 PA

26.80

ARMY 49%TLSA 51%

Projected ARMY 26.37–26.80 TLSA

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

ARMY -1.8

TLSA -1.5

Total

52.5

53.5

Gap: -3.3 margin, -1.0 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ARMY vs TLSA

The model

How this number was built

ARMY 26.37–26.80 TLSA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
TLSA -3.7 vs ARMY -0.0 · pred margin +0.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +0.5 vs +5.5 · model TLSA 22.9–27.4 ARMY
Home field
+3.0 pts to TLSA
Record
TLSA 4-3 · ARMY 4-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward TLSA -1.5 / total 53.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Cale Hellums
Pass 32/57, 358 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
Cale Hellums
Rush 129 CAR, 719 YDS, 13 TD
Zach Mundell
Rec 8 REC, 95 YDS, 1 TD

Baylor Hayes
Pass 99/161, 1081 YDS, 8 TD, 1 INT
Damari Alston
Rush 91 CAR, 366 YDS, 6 TD
Oran Singleton Jr.
Rec 38 REC, 474 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ARMY	TLSA
Points Per Game	34.8	29.0
Total Yards	426.7	364.0
Yards Passing	69.2	204.4
Yards Rushing	357.5	159.6
Points Allowed Per Game	20.0	22.4
Yards Allowed	368.0	408.4
Pass Yards Allowed	220.0	216.9
Rush Yards Allowed	148.0	191.6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Army vs Tulsa prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is ARMY +1.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projects Army 26.4, Tulsa 26.8. Model win probability: Tulsa 51%, Army 49%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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