NCAAFFri 6:00 PM CTPratt & Whitney Stadium

Massachusetts Minutemen at UConn Huskies

TV · CBSSN

Fri 6:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 49.5

54%

MASS 17.72–32.34 CONN

Massachusetts Minutemen

4-3 · L3

196 PF · 134 PA

17.72

Projected

UConn Huskies

3-3 · W1

214 PF · 151 PA

32.34

MASS 18%CONN 82%

Projected MASS 17.72–32.34 CONN

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

CONN -12.8

CONN -15.5

Total

51.2

49.5

Gap: -2.7 margin, +1.7 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MASS vs CONN

The model

How this number was built

MASS 17.72–32.34 CONN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
CONN -6.0 vs MASS -13.8 · pred margin +14.6
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +5.3 vs -3.8 · model CONN 36.3–18.9 MASS
Home field
+3.0 pts to CONN
Record
CONN 3-3 · MASS 4-3
Market prior
Blended 68% toward CONN -15.5 / total 49.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

William Watson III
Pass 74/100, 820 YDS, 7 TD, 2 INT
Elijah Faulkner
Rush 83 CAR, 361 YDS, 1 TD
T.Y. Harding
Rec 28 REC, 327 YDS, 2 TD

Kalieb Osborne
Pass 98/163, 1421 YDS, 10 TD, 2 INT
Cyncir Bowers
Rush 65 CAR, 433 YDS, 6 TD
Shamar Porter
Rec 11 REC, 235 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MASS	CONN
Points Per Game	28.0	35.7
Total Yards	339.1	449.2
Yards Passing	179.0	256.5
Yards Rushing	160.1	192.7
Points Allowed Per Game	19.1	25.2
Yards Allowed	307.9	407.2
Pass Yards Allowed	183.1	290.5
Rush Yards Allowed	124.7	116.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

UMass vs UConn prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 49.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projects UMass 17.7, UConn 32.3. Model win probability: UConn 82%, UMass 18%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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