NCAAFSat 10:00 PM CTValley Children's Stadium

Oregon State Beavers at Fresno State Bulldogs

TV · USA Net

Sat 10:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

FRES +6.5

56%

At lock ORST 30.02–25.86 FRES · ORST by 4.2 pts vs FRES +6.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

B. Atkinson · ORST
QB
A. Newberry · ORST
RB
J. Legree · ORST
WR
J. Mandal · FRES
QB
R. Luke · FRES
RB
J. Freeman · FRES
WR

Oregon State Beavers

5-2 · W5

299 PF · 162 PA

30.02

Projected

Fresno State Bulldogs

4-3 · L2 · computer pick

193 PF · 146 PA

25.86

ORST 63%FRES 37%

At lock: projected ORST 30.02–25.86 FRES

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

ORST -2.7

ORST -6.5

Total

55.9

56.5

Gap: +3.8 margin, -0.6 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ORST vs FRES

The model

How this number was built

ORST 30.02–25.86 FRES · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
FRES -1.0 vs ORST +6.1 · pred margin -5.2
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +4.1 vs +5.8 · model FRES 27.6–27.0 ORST
Home field
+3.0 pts to FRES
Record
FRES 4-3 · ORST 5-2
Market prior
Blended 67% toward ORST -6.5 / total 56.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Braden Atkinson
Pass 189/273, 2604 YDS, 24 TD, 2 INT
AJ Newberry
Rush 65 CAR, 431 YDS, 3 TD
Jesse Legree
Rec 46 REC, 1040 YDS, 14 TD

Jayden Mandal
Pass 123/195, 1393 YDS, 8 TD, 1 INT
Rayshon Luke
Rush 52 CAR, 333 YDS, 1 TD
Josiah Freeman
Rec 32 REC, 445 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ORST	FRES
Points Per Game	42.7	27.6
Total Yards	527.0	351.1
Yards Passing	384.9	212.1
Yards Rushing	142.1	139.0
Points Allowed Per Game	23.1	20.9
Yards Allowed	345.3	384.3
Pass Yards Allowed	204.9	213.6
Rush Yards Allowed	140.4	170.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Oregon St vs Fresno St prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is FRES +6.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Oregon St 30.0, Fresno St 25.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Fresno St 37%, Oregon St 63%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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