NCAAFSat 2:30 PM CTMaverik Stadium

Colorado State Rams at Utah State Aggies

TV · USA Net

Sat 2:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 63.5

53%

At lock CSU 27.25–34.85 USU · 1.4 pts under 63.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

H. Hejny · CSU
QB
M. Brown · CSU
RB
R. Vick · CSU
WR
G. Brosterhous · USU
QB
J. Jacobs · USU
RB
E. Wood · USU
WR

Colorado State Rams

3-4 · W1

270 PF · 308 PA

27.25

Projected

Utah State Aggies

2-5 · L1

104 PF · 161 PA

34.85

CSU 33%USU 67%

At lock: projected CSU 27.25–34.85 USU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

USU -7.8

USU -6.5

Total

62.2

63.5

Gap: +1.3 margin, -1.3 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: CSU vs USU

The model

How this number was built

CSU 27.25–34.85 USU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
USU -7.1 vs CSU -10.9 · pred margin +6.9
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -0.3 vs -4.5 · model USU 34.5–24.7 CSU
Home field
+3.0 pts to USU
Record
USU 2-5 · CSU 3-4
Market prior
Blended 67% toward USU -6.5 / total 63.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Hauss Hejny
Pass 71/104, 952 YDS, 13 TD, 2 INT
Mel Brown
Rush 52 CAR, 454 YDS, 3 TD
RJ Vick
Rec 24 REC, 367 YDS, 4 TD

Grady Brosterhous
Pass 99/178, 1120 YDS, 7 TD, 6 INT
Javen Jacobs
Rush 84 CAR, 435 YDS, 2 TD
Eli Wood
Rec 37 REC, 479 YDS, 5 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CSU	USU
Points Per Game	38.6	14.9
Total Yards	460.1	306.4
Yards Passing	283.0	193.0
Yards Rushing	177.1	113.4
Points Allowed Per Game	44.0	23.0
Yards Allowed	535.3	344.0
Pass Yards Allowed	272.1	211.4
Rush Yards Allowed	263.1	132.6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Colorado St vs Utah State prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 63.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Colorado St 27.3, Utah State 34.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Utah State 67%, Colorado St 33%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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