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Washington State Cougars at San Diego State Aztecs

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Computer pick · Total

Over 48.5

50%

At lock WSU 22.77–25.85 SDSU · 0.1 pts over 48.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

C. Pinnick · WSU
QB
K. Vorhees · WSU
RB
B. Ganashamoorthy · WSU
WR
J. Denegal · SDSU
QB
J. Kinnard · SDSU
RB
J. Hawkins · SDSU
WR

Washington State Cougars

1-7 · L5

151 PF · 221 PA

22.77

Projected

San Diego State Aztecs

3-5 · L1

212 PF · 289 PA

25.85

WSU 43%SDSU 57%

At lock: projected WSU 22.77–25.85 SDSU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

SDSU -2.6

SDSU -3.0

Total

48.6

48.5

Gap: -0.4 margin, +0.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: WSU vs SDSU

The model

How this number was built

WSU 22.77–25.85 SDSU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
SDSU -9.7 vs WSU -9.1 · pred margin +2.9
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.1 vs -1.1 · model SDSU 26.0–22.8 WSU
Home field
+3.0 pts to SDSU
Record
SDSU 3-5 · WSU 1-7
Market prior
Blended 66% toward SDSU -3 / total 48.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Caden Pinnick
Pass 110/178, 952 YDS, 3 TD, 5 INT
Kirby Vorhees
Rush 59 CAR, 275 YDS, 3 TD
Branden Ganashamoorthy
Rec 30 REC, 401 YDS, 3 TD

Jayden Denegal
Pass 83/151, 899 YDS, 7 TD, 5 INT
Javion Kinnard
Rush 91 CAR, 526 YDS, 3 TD
Jaylon Hawkins
Rec 18 REC, 322 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	WSU	SDSU
Points Per Game	18.9	26.5
Total Yards	299.6	326.9
Yards Passing	179.3	176.4
Yards Rushing	120.4	150.5
Points Allowed Per Game	27.6	36.1
Yards Allowed	386.8	461.5
Pass Yards Allowed	214.9	283.6
Rush Yards Allowed	171.9	177.9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Washington St vs San Diego St prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 48.5, with a 50% model probability. The model projected Washington St 22.8, San Diego St 25.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: San Diego St 57%, Washington St 43%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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