NCAAFSat 9:00 PM CTAlbertsons Stadium

Texas State Bobcats at #20 Boise State Broncos

TV · CW

Sat 9:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

TXST +11.5

53%

At lock TXST 26.26–36.73 BOIS · BOIS by 10.5 pts vs TXST +11.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

B. Jackson · TXST
QB
T. Burgess Jr. · TXST
RB
C. Dawn Jr. · TXST
WR
M. Madsen · BOIS
QB
D. Riley · BOIS
RB
R. Jones · BOIS
WR

Texas State Bobcats

4-3 · W2 · computer pick

260 PF · 210 PA

26.26

Projected

#20Boise State Broncos

6-1 · W6

241 PF · 144 PA

36.73

TXST 23%BOIS 77%

At lock: projected TXST 26.26–36.73 BOIS

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

BOIS -12.7

BOIS -11.5

Total

63.0

63.5

Gap: +1.2 margin, -0.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: TXST vs BOIS

The model

How this number was built

TXST 26.26–36.73 BOIS · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
BOIS +11.3 vs TXST -0.3 · pred margin +11.9
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +8.1 vs +4.8 · model BOIS 35.2–26.8 TXST
Home field
+3.0 pts to BOIS
Record
BOIS 6-1 · TXST 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward BOIS -11.5 / total 63.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Brad Jackson
Pass 133/194, 1606 YDS, 14 TD, 5 INT
Torrance Burgess Jr.
Rush 118 CAR, 889 YDS, 5 TD
Chris Dawn Jr.
Rec 36 REC, 396 YDS, 4 TD

Maddux Madsen
Pass 124/189, 1445 YDS, 14 TD
Dylan Riley
Rush 140 CAR, 963 YDS, 8 TD
Rasean Jones
Rec 28 REC, 428 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TXST	BOIS
Points Per Game	37.1	34.4
Total Yards	517.7	444.3
Yards Passing	245.7	206.4
Yards Rushing	272.0	237.9
Points Allowed Per Game	30.0	20.6
Yards Allowed	404.4	350.4
Pass Yards Allowed	285.1	251.3
Rush Yards Allowed	119.3	99.1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Texas St vs Boise St prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is TXST +11.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Texas St 26.3, Boise St 36.7 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Boise St 77%, Texas St 23%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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