NCAAFSat 11:00 AM CTGillette Stadium

#5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Navy Midshipmen

TV · ABC

Sat 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Spread

NAVY +29.5

55%

At lock ND 40.78–13.44 NAVY · ND by 27.3 pts vs NAVY +29.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

C. Carr · ND
QB
J. Walton · ND
RB
J. Faison · ND
WR
J. Gutierrez · NAVY
QB
J. Collins · NAVY
TE

#5Notre Dame Fighting Irish

6-1 · L1

288 PF · 94 PA

40.78

Projected

Navy Midshipmen

2-5 · L2 · computer pick

208 PF · 204 PA

13.44

ND 96%NAVY 4%

At lock: projected ND 40.78–13.44 NAVY

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

ND -27.0

ND -29.5

Total

54.7

53.5

Gap: +2.5 margin, +1.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ND vs NAVY

The model

How this number was built

ND 40.78–13.44 NAVY · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
NAVY -6.3 vs ND +27.7 · pred margin -28.7
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +1.6 vs +15.3 · model NAVY 19.6–37.7 ND
Home field
+3.0 pts to NAVY
Record
NAVY 2-5 · ND 6-1
Market prior
Blended 67% toward ND -29.5 / total 53.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

CJ Carr
Pass 129/193, 1639 YDS, 16 TD, 1 INT
Jonaz Walton
Rush 57 CAR, 426 YDS, 3 TD
Jordan Faison
Rec 34 REC, 451 YDS, 4 TD

Jackson Gutierrez
Pass 33/65, 715 YDS, 7 TD, 1 INT
Jackson Gutierrez
Rush 149 CAR, 872 YDS, 12 TD
Jordan Collins
Rec 6 REC, 212 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ND	NAVY
Points Per Game	41.1	29.7
Total Yards	445.1	430.4
Yards Passing	261.7	122.7
Yards Rushing	183.4	307.7
Points Allowed Per Game	13.4	29.1
Yards Allowed	235.0	365.1
Pass Yards Allowed	167.7	255.9
Rush Yards Allowed	67.3	109.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Notre Dame vs Navy prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is NAVY +29.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Notre Dame 40.8, Navy 13.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Navy 4%, Notre Dame 96%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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