NCAAFSat 6:30 PM CTLos Angeles Memorial Coliseum

#2 Ohio State Buckeyes at USC Trojans

TV · NBC

Sat 6:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

OSU -7

54%

At lock OSU 30.05–21.38 USC · OSU by 8.7 pts vs OSU -7 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

J. Sayin · OSU
QB
B. Jackson · OSU
RB
J. Smith · OSU
WR
J. Maiava · USC
QB
K. Miller · USC
RB
K. Dixon-Wyatt · USC
WR

#2Ohio State Buckeyes

6-1 · W5 · computer pick

275 PF · 94 PA

30.05

Projected

USC Trojans

6-2 · L1

262 PF · 200 PA

21.38

OSU 71%USC 29%

At lock: projected OSU 30.05–21.38 USC

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

OSU -12.4

OSU -7.0

Total

51.4

50.5

Gap: -5.4 margin, +0.9 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: OSU vs USC

The model

How this number was built

OSU 30.05–21.38 USC · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
USC +12.7 vs OSU +28.2 · pred margin -8.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +6.7 vs +16.5 · model USC 20.6–32.7 OSU
Home field
+3.0 pts to USC
Record
USC 6-2 · OSU 6-1
Market prior
Blended 67% toward OSU -7 / total 50.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Julian Sayin
Pass 131/192, 2007 YDS, 19 TD, 4 INT
Bo Jackson
Rush 107 CAR, 516 YDS, 4 TD
Jeremiah Smith
Rec 52 REC, 984 YDS, 12 TD

Jayden Maiava
Pass 183/274, 2303 YDS, 19 TD, 5 INT
King Miller
Rush 125 CAR, 603 YDS, 4 TD
Kayden Dixon-Wyatt
Rec 32 REC, 443 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	OSU	USC
Points Per Game	39.3	32.8
Total Yards	476.3	434.8
Yards Passing	323.1	303.6
Yards Rushing	153.1	131.1
Points Allowed Per Game	13.4	25.0
Yards Allowed	264.3	331.3
Pass Yards Allowed	171.4	216.4
Rush Yards Allowed	92.9	114.9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Ohio State vs USC prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is OSU -7, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Ohio State 30.1, USC 21.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: USC 29%, Ohio State 71%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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