NCAAFSat 3:15 PM CTRose Bowl

Nevada Wolf Pack at #7 UCLA Bruins

TV · BTN

Sat 3:15 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

NEV +22.5

55%

At lock NEV 12.25–32.89 UCLA · UCLA by 20.6 pts vs NEV +22.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

C. Jones · NEV
QB
D. Kelley · NEV
RB
G. Givens III · NEV
WR
N. Iamaleava · UCLA
QB
W. Knight · UCLA
RB
S. Morgan · UCLA
WR

Nevada Wolf Pack

3-4 · W1 · computer pick

184 PF · 154 PA

12.25

Projected

#7UCLA Bruins

7-0 · W7

241 PF · 107 PA

32.89

NEV 9%UCLA 91%

At lock: projected NEV 12.25–32.89 UCLA

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

UCLA -19.2

UCLA -22.5

Total

45.5

44.5

Gap: -3.3 margin, +1.0 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NEV vs UCLA

The model

How this number was built

NEV 12.25–32.89 UCLA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
UCLA +11.7 vs NEV -7.5 · pred margin +21.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +5.6 vs -0.5 · model UCLA 30.3–17.5 NEV
Home field
+3.0 pts to UCLA
Record
UCLA 7-0 · NEV 3-4
Market prior
Blended 67% toward UCLA -22.5 / total 44.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Carter Jones
Pass 53/89, 654 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
Dominic Kelley
Rush 111 CAR, 582 YDS, 5 TD
Gary Givens III
Rec 19 REC, 305 YDS, 1 TD

Nico Iamaleava
Pass 72/116, 982 YDS, 4 TD, 4 INT
Wayne Knight
Rush 99 CAR, 627 YDS, 12 TD
Semaj Morgan
Rec 31 REC, 383 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NEV	UCLA
Points Per Game	26.3	34.4
Total Yards	358.9	445.4
Yards Passing	177.3	212.4
Yards Rushing	181.6	233.0
Points Allowed Per Game	22.0	15.3
Yards Allowed	320.3	272.9
Pass Yards Allowed	153.9	182.4
Rush Yards Allowed	166.4	90.4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Nevada vs UCLA prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is NEV +22.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Nevada 12.3, UCLA 32.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: UCLA 91%, Nevada 9%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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