NCAAFSat 11:30 AM CTSHI Stadium

Michigan Wolverines at Rutgers Scarlet Knights

TV · BTN

Sat 11:30 AM CT

Computer pick · Spread

RUTG +14

55%

At lock MICH 30.30–18.33 RUTG · MICH by 12.0 pts vs RUTG +14 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

B. Underwood · MICH
QB
J. Marshall · MICH
RB
J. Buchanan · MICH
WR
D. Lonergan · RUTG
QB
A. Raymond · RUTG
RB
K. Duff · RUTG
WR

Michigan Wolverines

4-3 · L1

142 PF · 110 PA

30.30

Projected

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

2-5 · L1 · computer pick

201 PF · 233 PA

18.33

MICH 79%RUTG 21%

At lock: projected MICH 30.30–18.33 RUTG

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

MICH -11.1

MICH -14.0

Total

48.6

47.5

Gap: +2.9 margin, +1.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MICH vs RUTG

The model

How this number was built

MICH 30.30–18.33 RUTG · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
RUTG -4.4 vs MICH +11.1 · pred margin -13.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.1 vs +6.0 · model RUTG 21.5–29.4 MICH
Home field
+3.0 pts to RUTG
Record
RUTG 2-5 · MICH 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward MICH -14 / total 47.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Bryce Underwood
Pass 72/124, 924 YDS, 5 TD, 6 INT
Jordan Marshall
Rush 81 CAR, 319 YDS, 4 TD
JJ Buchanan
Rec 33 REC, 539 YDS, 4 TD

Dylan Lonergan
Pass 74/127, 1066 YDS, 10 TD, 6 INT
Antwan Raymond
Rush 123 CAR, 648 YDS, 6 TD
KJ Duff
Rec 45 REC, 774 YDS, 9 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MICH	RUTG
Points Per Game	20.3	28.7
Total Yards	300.6	394.9
Yards Passing	165.9	242.1
Yards Rushing	134.7	152.7
Points Allowed Per Game	15.7	33.3
Yards Allowed	250.1	416.7
Pass Yards Allowed	154.6	217.6
Rush Yards Allowed	95.6	199.1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Michigan vs Rutgers prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is RUTG +14, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Michigan 30.3, Rutgers 18.3 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Rutgers 21%, Michigan 79%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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