NCAAFSat 3:15 PM CTBeaver Stadium

Purdue Boilermakers at Penn State Nittany Lions

TV · BTN

Sat 3:15 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

PSU -7.5

54%

At lock PUR 22.40–31.36 PSU · PSU by 9.0 pts vs PSU -7.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

R. Browne · PUR
QB
F. Ijeboi · PUR
RB
A. Waseem · PUR
WR
R. Becht · PSU
QB
C. Hansen · PSU
RB
C. Sowell · PSU
WR

Purdue Boilermakers

3-4 · L1

219 PF · 226 PA

22.40

Projected

Penn State Nittany Lions

3-4 · L4 · computer pick

201 PF · 132 PA

31.36

PUR 28%PSU 72%

At lock: projected PUR 22.40–31.36 PSU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

PSU -13.5

PSU -7.5

Total

53.9

53.5

Gap: +6.0 margin, +0.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: PUR vs PSU

The model

How this number was built

PUR 22.40–31.36 PSU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
PSU +11.9 vs PUR +2.2 · pred margin +9.5
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +6.4 vs -1.3 · model PSU 35.0–19.8 PUR
Home field
+3.0 pts to PSU
Record
PSU 3-4 · PUR 3-4
Market prior
Blended 67% toward PSU -7.5 / total 53.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Ryan Browne
Pass 145/221, 1822 YDS, 10 TD, 3 INT
Fame Ijeboi
Rush 130 CAR, 568 YDS, 9 TD
Asaad Waseem
Rec 38 REC, 588 YDS, 1 TD

Rocco Becht
Pass 132/210, 1664 YDS, 12 TD, 5 INT
Carson Hansen
Rush 72 CAR, 278 YDS, 4 TD
Chase Sowell
Rec 34 REC, 510 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	PUR	PSU
Points Per Game	31.3	28.7
Total Yards	409.1	384.1
Yards Passing	280.7	253.4
Yards Rushing	128.4	130.7
Points Allowed Per Game	32.3	18.9
Yards Allowed	413.1	313.6
Pass Yards Allowed	251.6	141.3
Rush Yards Allowed	161.6	172.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Purdue vs Penn State prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is PSU -7.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Purdue 22.4, Penn State 31.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Penn State 72%, Purdue 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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