NCAAFSat 7:00 PM CTMemorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)

Washington Huskies at Nebraska Cornhuskers

TV · BTN

Sat 7:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 49.5

51%

At lock WASH 20.77–29.34 NEB · 0.6 pts over 49.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

D. Williams Jr. · WASH
QB
B. Bonner Jr. · WASH
RB
D. Roebuck · WASH
WR
A. Colandrea · NEB
QB
J. Rule · NEB
RB
K. Gilmer · NEB
WR

Washington Huskies

4-3 · W1

195 PF · 159 PA

20.77

Projected

Nebraska Cornhuskers

5-2 · L2

249 PF · 108 PA

29.34

WASH 27%NEB 73%

At lock: projected WASH 20.77–29.34 NEB

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

NEB -13.2

NEB -8.5

Total

50.1

49.5

Gap: +4.7 margin, +0.6 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: WASH vs NEB

The model

How this number was built

WASH 20.77–29.34 NEB · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
NEB +16.7 vs WASH +4.5 · pred margin +10.1
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +9.3 vs +5.8 · model NEB 30.0–21.3 WASH
Home field
+3.0 pts to NEB
Record
NEB 5-2 · WASH 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward NEB -8.5 / total 49.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Demond Williams Jr.
Pass 116/174, 1396 YDS, 8 TD, 3 INT
Brian Bonner Jr.
Rush 64 CAR, 296 YDS, 1 TD
Dezmen Roebuck
Rec 48 REC, 484 YDS, 3 TD

Anthony Colandrea
Pass 137/219, 1570 YDS, 14 TD, 4 INT
Jamal Rule
Rush 60 CAR, 391 YDS, 5 TD
Kwazi Gilmer
Rec 38 REC, 492 YDS, 7 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	WASH	NEB
Points Per Game	27.9	35.6
Total Yards	386.7	430.3
Yards Passing	282.7	235.9
Yards Rushing	104.0	194.4
Points Allowed Per Game	22.7	15.4
Yards Allowed	336.1	271.3
Pass Yards Allowed	205.0	171.7
Rush Yards Allowed	131.1	99.6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Washington vs Nebraska prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 49.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Washington 20.8, Nebraska 29.3 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Nebraska 73%, Washington 27%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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