NCAAFSat 11:00 AM CTSECU Stadium

Illinois Fighting Illini at Maryland Terrapins

TV · FS1

Sat 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Spread

ILL -2.5

53%

At lock ILL 28.56–24.98 MD · ILL by 3.6 pts vs ILL -2.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

K. Houser · ILL
QB
A. Laughery · ILL
RB
C. Dixon · ILL
WR
M. Washington · MD
QB
D. Williams · MD
RB
C. Durr Jr. · MD
WR

Illinois Fighting Illini

4-3 · W2 · computer pick

212 PF · 177 PA

28.56

Projected

Maryland Terrapins

2-5 · L5

198 PF · 233 PA

24.98

ILL 60%MD 40%

At lock: projected ILL 28.56–24.98 MD

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

ILL -6.8

ILL -2.5

Total

53.5

52.5

Gap: -4.3 margin, +1.0 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: ILL vs MD

The model

How this number was built

ILL 28.56–24.98 MD · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
MD -3.9 vs ILL +6.4 · pred margin -3.9
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -1.7 vs +4.1 · model MD 24.9–30.7 ILL
Home field
+3.0 pts to MD
Record
MD 2-5 · ILL 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward ILL -2.5 / total 52.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Katin Houser
Pass 122/184, 1440 YDS, 12 TD, 4 INT
Aidan Laughery
Rush 75 CAR, 514 YDS, 2 TD
Collin Dixon
Rec 53 REC, 673 YDS, 10 TD

Malik Washington
Pass 155/261, 1615 YDS, 9 TD, 6 INT
DeJuan Williams
Rush 38 CAR, 281 YDS, 3 TD
Chris Durr Jr.
Rec 52 REC, 580 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ILL	MD
Points Per Game	30.3	28.3
Total Yards	392.4	377.7
Yards Passing	231.0	244.7
Yards Rushing	161.4	133.0
Points Allowed Per Game	25.3	33.3
Yards Allowed	382.4	366.6
Pass Yards Allowed	248.0	217.9
Rush Yards Allowed	134.4	148.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Illinois vs Maryland prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is ILL -2.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Illinois 28.6, Maryland 25.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Maryland 40%, Illinois 60%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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