NCAAFSat 11:00 AM CTKinnick Stadium

#25 Wisconsin Badgers at Iowa Hawkeyes

TV · Fox

Sat 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Spread

IOWA -3.5

56%

At lock WIS 15.80–21.60 IOWA · IOWA by 5.8 pts vs IOWA -3.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

C. Joseph · WIS
QB
T. Henry · WIS
WR
H. Brown · IOWA
QB
K. Moulton · IOWA
RB
T. Diaz · IOWA
WR

#25Wisconsin Badgers

5-2 · W1

189 PF · 107 PA

15.80

Projected

Iowa Hawkeyes

5-2 · L1 · computer pick

196 PF · 100 PA

21.60

WIS 40%IOWA 60%

At lock: projected WIS 15.80–21.60 IOWA

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

IOWA -5.6

IOWA -3.5

Total

37.4

36.5

Gap: +2.1 margin, +0.9 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: WIS vs IOWA

The model

How this number was built

WIS 15.80–21.60 IOWA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
IOWA +11.1 vs WIS +10.7 · pred margin +4.2
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +9.4 vs +4.8 · model IOWA 24.8–14.4 WIS
Home field
+3.0 pts to IOWA
Record
IOWA 5-2 · WIS 5-2
Market prior
Blended 67% toward IOWA -3.5 / total 36.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Colton Joseph
Pass 99/173, 1256 YDS, 11 TD, 5 INT
Colton Joseph
Rush 84 CAR, 365 YDS, 4 TD
Tyrell Henry
Rec 28 REC, 343 YDS, 1 TD

Hank Brown
Pass 89/145, 968 YDS, 6 TD, 3 INT
Kamari Moulton
Rush 86 CAR, 541 YDS, 4 TD
Tony Diaz
Rec 29 REC, 386 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	WIS	IOWA
Points Per Game	27.0	28.0
Total Yards	330.1	386.7
Yards Passing	179.4	207.6
Yards Rushing	150.7	179.1
Points Allowed Per Game	15.3	14.3
Yards Allowed	280.1	281.3
Pass Yards Allowed	183.6	198.4
Rush Yards Allowed	96.6	82.9

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Wisconsin vs Iowa prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is IOWA -3.5, with a 56% model probability. The model projected Wisconsin 15.8, Iowa 21.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Iowa 60%, Wisconsin 40%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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