NCAAFSat 2:30 PM CTMemorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)

Minnesota Golden Gophers at #4 Indiana Hoosiers

TV · CBS

Sat 2:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

IU -19.5

53%

At lock MINN 11.28–32.19 IU · IU by 20.9 pts vs IU -19.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

D. Lindsey · MINN
QB
T. Thomas · MINN
RB
J. Tracy · MINN
WR
J. Hoover · IU
QB
T. Richard · IU
RB
C. Becker · IU
WR

Minnesota Golden Gophers

5-2 · W1

186 PF · 141 PA

11.28

Projected

#4Indiana Hoosiers

7-1 · W1 · computer pick

269 PF · 96 PA

32.19

MINN 9%IU 91%

At lock: projected MINN 11.28–32.19 IU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

IU -25.6

IU -19.5

Total

43.4

42.5

Gap: +6.1 margin, +0.9 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MINN vs IU

The model

How this number was built

MINN 11.28–32.19 IU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
IU +24.1 vs MINN +0.7 · pred margin +21.5
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +16.2 vs +3.1 · model IU 34.6–10.8 MINN
Home field
+3.0 pts to IU
Record
IU 7-1 · MINN 5-2
Market prior
Blended 67% toward IU -19.5 / total 42.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Drake Lindsey
Pass 141/222, 1472 YDS, 9 TD, 6 INT
TJ Thomas
Rush 57 CAR, 325 YDS, 1 TD
Javon Tracy
Rec 39 REC, 420 YDS, 1 TD

Josh Hoover
Pass 116/187, 1741 YDS, 18 TD, 1 INT
Turbo Richard
Rush 106 CAR, 711 YDS, 6 TD
Charlie Becker
Rec 42 REC, 726 YDS, 8 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MINN	IU
Points Per Game	26.6	33.6
Total Yards	322.4	419.6
Yards Passing	222.3	228.1
Yards Rushing	100.1	191.5
Points Allowed Per Game	20.1	12.0
Yards Allowed	288.7	264.8
Pass Yards Allowed	165.1	191.6
Rush Yards Allowed	123.6	73.1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Minnesota vs Indiana prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is IU -19.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Minnesota 11.3, Indiana 32.2 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Indiana 91%, Minnesota 9%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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