NCAAFSat 11:00 AM CTRyan Field

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at #24 Northwestern Wildcats

TV · Peacock

Sat 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Spread

RUTG +16.5

53%

RUTG 20.71–37.48 NU

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

2-4 · W1 · computer pick

187 PF · 191 PA

20.71

Projected

#24Northwestern Wildcats

5-1 · W3

201 PF · 102 PA

37.48

RUTG 15%NU 85%

Projected RUTG 20.71–37.48 NU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

NU -17.3

NU -16.5

Total

57.5

58.5

Gap: +0.8 margin, -1.0 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: RUTG vs NU

The model

How this number was built

RUTG 20.71–37.48 NU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
NU +13.1 vs RUTG -3.1 · pred margin +16.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +6.5 vs +0.2 · model NU 34.2–21.1 RUTG
Home field
+3.0 pts to NU
Record
NU 5-1 · RUTG 2-4
Market prior
Blended 68% toward NU -16.5 / total 58.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Dylan Lonergan
Pass 74/127, 1066 YDS, 10 TD, 6 INT
Antwan Raymond
Rush 105 CAR, 498 YDS, 5 TD
KJ Duff
Rec 42 REC, 741 YDS, 9 TD

Aidan Chiles
Pass 98/139, 1398 YDS, 9 TD
Caleb Komolafe
Rush 75 CAR, 401 YDS, 4 TD
Griffin Wilde
Rec 30 REC, 482 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	RUTG	NU
Points Per Game	31.2	33.5
Total Yards	403.3	424.5
Yards Passing	265.8	233.0
Yards Rushing	137.5	191.5
Points Allowed Per Game	31.8	17.0
Yards Allowed	402.5	368.0
Pass Yards Allowed	217.3	230.5
Rush Yards Allowed	185.2	137.5

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Rutgers vs Northwestern prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is RUTG +16.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projects Rutgers 20.7, Northwestern 37.5. Model win probability: Northwestern 85%, Rutgers 15%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day