NCAAFSat 11:00 AM CTMichigan Stadium

#6 Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan Wolverines

TV · Fox

Sat 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Spread

IU -7

55%

IU 25.27–16.63 MICH

#6Indiana Hoosiers

6-1 · L1 · computer pick

256 PF · 90 PA

25.27

Projected

Michigan Wolverines

4-2 · W1

136 PF · 97 PA

16.63

IU 70%MICH 30%

Projected IU 25.27–16.63 MICH

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

IU -12.0

IU -7.0

Total

42.7

41.5

Gap: -5.0 margin, +1.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: IU vs MICH

The model

How this number was built

IU 25.27–16.63 MICH · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
MICH +10.9 vs IU +25.4 · pred margin -8.6
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +5.8 vs +16.5 · model MICH 16.1–29.5 IU
Home field
+3.0 pts to MICH
Record
MICH 4-2 · IU 6-1
Market prior
Blended 68% toward IU -7 / total 41.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Josh Hoover
Pass 108/169, 1660 YDS, 18 TD
Turbo Richard
Rush 87 CAR, 643 YDS, 6 TD
Charlie Becker
Rec 39 REC, 694 YDS, 8 TD

Bryce Underwood
Pass 72/124, 924 YDS, 5 TD, 6 INT
Jordan Marshall
Rush 69 CAR, 293 YDS, 4 TD
JJ Buchanan
Rec 27 REC, 482 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	IU	MICH
Points Per Game	36.6	22.7
Total Yards	449.3	313.3
Yards Passing	249.1	165.7
Yards Rushing	200.1	147.7
Points Allowed Per Game	12.9	16.2
Yards Allowed	270.6	256.5
Pass Yards Allowed	195.1	166.8
Rush Yards Allowed	75.4	89.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Indiana vs Michigan prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is IU -7, with a 55% model probability. The model projects Indiana 25.3, Michigan 16.6. Model win probability: Michigan 30%, Indiana 70%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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