NCAAFSat 2:45 PM CTAllegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium

Virginia Cavaliers at #14 Wake Forest Demon Deacons

TV · ESPN2

Sat 2:45 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

UVA +14

55%

At lock UVA 18.68–30.81 WAKE · WAKE by 12.1 pts vs UVA +14 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

B. Pribula · UVA
QB
J. Middlebrook · UVA
RB
D. Martin · UVA
WR
G. Lopez · WAKE
QB
T. Clark III · WAKE
RB
C. Hernandez · WAKE
WR

Virginia Cavaliers

4-4 · L2 · computer pick

226 PF · 157 PA

18.68

Projected

#14Wake Forest Demon Deacons

6-1 · W4

262 PF · 136 PA

30.81

UVA 21%WAKE 79%

At lock: projected UVA 18.68–30.81 WAKE

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

WAKE -10.9

WAKE -14.0

Total

49.5

Gap: -3.1 margin, -0.0 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UVA vs WAKE

The model

How this number was built

UVA 18.68–30.81 WAKE · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
WAKE +15.1 vs UVA +6.0 · pred margin +13.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +9.0 vs +5.8 · model WAKE 28.9–20.6 UVA
Home field
+3.0 pts to WAKE
Record
WAKE 6-1 · UVA 4-4
Market prior
Blended 67% toward WAKE -14 / total 49.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Beau Pribula
Pass 119/183, 1369 YDS, 13 TD, 2 INT
Jekail Middlebrook
Rush 105 CAR, 513 YDS, 4 TD
Da'Shawn Martin
Rec 17 REC, 247 YDS, 5 TD

Gio Lopez
Pass 140/207, 1947 YDS, 17 TD, 1 INT
Ty Clark III
Rush 70 CAR, 328 YDS, 4 TD
Carlos Hernandez
Rec 49 REC, 720 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	UVA	WAKE
Points Per Game	28.3	37.4
Total Yards	360.9	445.9
Yards Passing	199.3	290.3
Yards Rushing	161.6	155.6
Points Allowed Per Game	19.6	19.4
Yards Allowed	326.6	322.6
Pass Yards Allowed	184.8	230.1
Rush Yards Allowed	141.9	92.4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Virginia vs Wake Forest prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is UVA +14, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Virginia 18.7, Wake Forest 30.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Wake Forest 79%, Virginia 21%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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