NCAAFSat 2:15 PM CTL&N Federal Credit Union Stadium

Stanford Cardinal at Louisville Cardinals

TV · ACC Network

Sat 2:15 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 61.5

54%

At lock STAN 18.58–41.13 LOU · 1.8 pts under 61.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

D. Warren · STAN
QB
M. Ford · STAN
RB
C. High · STAN
WR
L. Kienholz · LOU
QB
I. Brown · LOU
RB
L. McCoy · LOU
WR

Stanford Cardinal

4-4 · W2

159 PF · 284 PA

18.58

Projected

Louisville Cardinals

4-3 · W2

271 PF · 192 PA

41.13

STAN 7%LOU 93%

At lock: projected STAN 18.58–41.13 LOU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

LOU -25.4

LOU -22.5

Total

59.8

61.5

Gap: +2.9 margin, -1.7 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: STAN vs LOU

The model

How this number was built

STAN 18.58–41.13 LOU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
LOU +13.6 vs STAN -10.0 · pred margin +23.5
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +7.2 vs -5.3 · model LOU 39.4–16.7 STAN
Home field
+3.0 pts to LOU
Record
LOU 4-3 · STAN 4-4
Market prior
Blended 67% toward LOU -22.5 / total 61.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Davis Warren
Pass 163/271, 1933 YDS, 11 TD, 2 INT
Micah Ford
Rush 136 CAR, 679 YDS, 8 TD
Caden High
Rec 30 REC, 440 YDS, 4 TD

Lincoln Kienholz
Pass 121/180, 1844 YDS, 10 TD, 3 INT
Isaac Brown
Rush 83 CAR, 568 YDS, 4 TD
Lawayne McCoy
Rec 25 REC, 513 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	STAN	LOU
Points Per Game	19.9	38.7
Total Yards	359.6	484.6
Yards Passing	247.4	269.6
Yards Rushing	112.3	215.0
Points Allowed Per Game	35.5	27.4
Yards Allowed	443.1	419.9
Pass Yards Allowed	255.5	268.9
Rush Yards Allowed	187.6	151.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Stanford vs Louisville prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 61.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Stanford 18.6, Louisville 41.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Louisville 93%, Stanford 7%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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