#1 Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels
TV · ABC
At lock MIA 34.36–17.91 UNC · MIA by 16.4 pts vs MIA -14.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
D. Mensah · MIA
QBJ. Mallory · MIA
RBM. Toney · MIA
WRB. Edwards Jr. · UNC
QBB. Hall · UNC
RBJ. Shipp · UNC
WR
At lock: projected MIA 34.36–17.91 UNC
Model vs market
Gap: -3.7 margin, -0.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MIA vs UNC
The model
How this number was built
MIA 34.36–17.91 UNC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexUNC +7.4 vs MIA +27.5 · pred margin -15.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +1.7 vs +16.9 · model UNC 15.7–36.1 MIA
- Home field+3.0 pts to UNC
- RecordUNC 4-3 · MIA 7-0
- Market priorBlended 67% toward MIA -14.5 / total 52.5
Season leaders
Darian MensahPass 166/204, 2151 YDS, 22 TD, 1 INT
Javian MalloryRush 59 CAR, 444 YDS, 7 TD
Malachi ToneyRec 66 REC, 952 YDS, 11 TD
Billy Edwards Jr.Pass 121/201, 1531 YDS, 11 TD, 5 INT
Benjamin HallRush 57 CAR, 283 YDS
Jordan ShippRec 41 REC, 543 YDS, 2 TD
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MIA | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 49.0 | 24.4 |
| Total Yards | 551.9 | 335.9 |
| Yards Passing | 340.7 | 221.9 |
| Yards Rushing | 211.1 | 114.0 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 15.3 | 20.9 |
| Yards Allowed | 299.1 | 372.7 |
| Pass Yards Allowed | 239.1 | 218.0 |
| Rush Yards Allowed | 60.0 | 154.7 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Miami vs North Carolina prediction · Oct 31, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MIA -14.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Miami 34.4, North Carolina 17.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: North Carolina 17%, Miami 83%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day