NCAAFSat 6:30 PM CTAcrisure Stadium

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Pittsburgh Panthers

TV · ESPN2

Sat 6:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

PITT -7.5

54%

At lock GT 22.79–31.91 PITT · PITT by 9.1 pts vs PITT -7.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

A. Mendoza · GT
QB
J. Haynes · GT
RB
J. Allen · GT
WR
M. Heintschel · PITT
QB
D. Ferguson Jr. · PITT
RB
C. Hicks · PITT
WR

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

2-5 · L2

187 PF · 212 PA

22.79

Projected

Pittsburgh Panthers

5-3 · L3 · computer pick

253 PF · 167 PA

31.91

GT 28%PITT 72%

At lock: projected GT 22.79–31.91 PITT

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

PITT -13.6

PITT -7.5

Total

54.6

53.5

Gap: +6.1 margin, +1.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: GT vs PITT

The model

How this number was built

GT 22.79–31.91 PITT · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
PITT +8.6 vs GT -2.5 · pred margin +9.5
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +6.4 vs +0.6 · model PITT 34.8–22.4 GT
Home field
+3.0 pts to PITT
Record
PITT 5-3 · GT 2-5
Market prior
Blended 67% toward PITT -7.5 / total 53.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Alberto Mendoza
Pass 153/215, 1714 YDS, 10 TD, 6 INT
Justice Haynes
Rush 101 CAR, 515 YDS, 4 TD
Jordan Allen
Rec 42 REC, 517 YDS, 1 TD

Mason Heintschel
Pass 98/148, 1304 YDS, 14 TD, 1 INT
Damon Ferguson Jr.
Rush 92 CAR, 477 YDS, 4 TD
Cataurus Hicks
Rec 31 REC, 649 YDS, 5 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	GT	PITT
Points Per Game	26.7	31.6
Total Yards	378.7	444.3
Yards Passing	255.3	290.8
Yards Rushing	123.4	153.5
Points Allowed Per Game	30.3	20.9
Yards Allowed	407.6	331.3
Pass Yards Allowed	197.1	266.3
Rush Yards Allowed	210.4	65.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Georgia Tech vs Pitt prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is PITT -7.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Georgia Tech 22.8, Pitt 31.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Pitt 72%, Georgia Tech 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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