NCAAFSat 6:00 PM CTDoak Campbell Stadium

Clemson Tigers at Florida State Seminoles

TV · ACC Network

Sat 6:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 49.5

51%

At lock CLEM 22.17–27.88 FSU · 0.5 pts over 49.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

T. Reynolds · CLEM
QB
G. Davidson · CLEM
RB
B. Wesco Jr. · CLEM
WR
A. Daniels · FSU
QB
O. Kromah · FSU
RB
D. Robinson · FSU
WR

Clemson Tigers

4-3 · L1

150 PF · 149 PA

22.17

Projected

Florida State Seminoles

3-4 · L2

221 PF · 195 PA

27.88

CLEM 35%FSU 65%

At lock: projected CLEM 22.17–27.88 FSU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

FSU -6.6

FSU -6.0

Total

50.0

49.5

Gap: +0.6 margin, +0.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: CLEM vs FSU

The model

How this number was built

CLEM 22.17–27.88 FSU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
FSU +10.1 vs CLEM +5.8 · pred margin +6.2
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +5.0 vs +3.9 · model FSU 28.1–23.0 CLEM
Home field
+3.0 pts to FSU
Record
FSU 3-4 · CLEM 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward FSU -6 / total 49.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Tait Reynolds
Pass 120/180, 1096 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
Gideon Davidson
Rush 93 CAR, 492 YDS, 5 TD
Bryant Wesco Jr.
Rec 34 REC, 378 YDS

Ashton Daniels
Pass 106/181, 1618 YDS, 12 TD, 8 INT
Ousmane Kromah
Rush 114 CAR, 609 YDS, 5 TD
Duce Robinson
Rec 22 REC, 407 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CLEM	FSU
Points Per Game	21.4	31.6
Total Yards	333.1	414.3
Yards Passing	182.6	234.1
Yards Rushing	150.6	180.1
Points Allowed Per Game	21.3	27.9
Yards Allowed	317.0	434.9
Pass Yards Allowed	185.7	256.3
Rush Yards Allowed	131.3	178.6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Clemson vs Florida St prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 49.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Clemson 22.2, Florida St 27.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Florida St 65%, Clemson 35%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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