NCAAFSat 11:00 AM CTWallace Wade Stadium

Boston College Eagles at Duke Blue Devils

TV · CW

Sat 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Spread

DUKE -7.5

55%

At lock BC 20.08–29.59 DUKE · DUKE by 9.5 pts vs DUKE -7.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

M. McKenzie · BC
QB
J. Green · BC
WR
W. Eget · DUKE
QB
N. Sheppard · DUKE
RB
J. Burton · DUKE
WR

Boston College Eagles

4-3 · W2

171 PF · 165 PA

20.08

Projected

Duke Blue Devils

5-2 · W1 · computer pick

209 PF · 112 PA

29.59

BC 29%DUKE 71%

At lock: projected BC 20.08–29.59 DUKE

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

DUKE -11.4

DUKE -7.5

Total

49.6

48.5

Gap: +3.9 margin, +1.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: BC vs DUKE

The model

How this number was built

BC 20.08–29.59 DUKE · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
DUKE +7.6 vs BC +0.2 · pred margin +8.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +7.0 vs +0.4 · model DUKE 32.8–19.2 BC
Home field
+3.0 pts to DUKE
Record
DUKE 5-2 · BC 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward DUKE -7.5 / total 48.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Mason McKenzie
Pass 107/185, 1363 YDS, 8 TD, 7 INT
Mason McKenzie
Rush 119 CAR, 614 YDS, 5 TD
Javarius Green
Rec 26 REC, 286 YDS, 1 TD

Walker Eget
Pass 122/197, 1440 YDS, 8 TD, 3 INT
Nate Sheppard
Rush 153 CAR, 875 YDS, 9 TD
Jonah Burton
Rec 20 REC, 289 YDS, 1 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BC	DUKE
Points Per Game	24.4	29.9
Total Yards	375.7	426.1
Yards Passing	194.7	236.4
Yards Rushing	181.0	189.7
Points Allowed Per Game	23.6	16.0
Yards Allowed	333.3	301.3
Pass Yards Allowed	182.1	194.1
Rush Yards Allowed	151.1	107.1

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Boston College vs Duke prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is DUKE -7.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Boston College 20.1, Duke 29.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Duke 71%, Boston College 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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