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#19 SMU Mustangs at Syracuse Orange

TV · ESPN2

Sat 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Spread

SMU -9.5

51%

At lock SMU 34.01–23.98 SYR · SMU by 10.0 pts vs SMU -9.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

K. Jennings · SMU
QB
K. Raphael · SMU
RB
Y. Knight · SMU
WR
S. Angeli · SYR
QB
T. Hill · SYR
RB
U. Hatcher · SYR
WR

#19SMU Mustangs

6-1 · W4 · computer pick

255 PF · 148 PA

34.01

Projected

Syracuse Orange

3-4 · W1

221 PF · 184 PA

23.98

SMU 72%SYR 28%

At lock: projected SMU 34.01–23.98 SYR

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

SMU -8.8

SMU -9.5

Total

58.0

58.5

Gap: +0.7 margin, -0.5 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: SMU vs SYR

The model

How this number was built

SMU 34.01–23.98 SYR · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
SYR +1.6 vs SMU +12.3 · pred margin -9.3
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -0.5 vs +8.7 · model SYR 22.9–34.0 SMU
Home field
+3.0 pts to SYR
Record
SYR 3-4 · SMU 6-1
Market prior
Blended 67% toward SMU -9.5 / total 58.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Kevin Jennings
Pass 156/215, 2062 YDS, 19 TD, 5 INT
Kendrick Raphael
Rush 121 CAR, 641 YDS, 8 TD
Yamir Knight
Rec 38 REC, 443 YDS, 2 TD

Steve Angeli
Pass 77/138, 987 YDS, 6 TD, 5 INT
Tylik Hill
Rush 89 CAR, 466 YDS, 1 TD
Umari Hatcher
Rec 54 REC, 887 YDS, 8 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SMU	SYR
Points Per Game	36.4	31.6
Total Yards	470.3	450.6
Yards Passing	313.1	286.1
Yards Rushing	157.1	164.4
Points Allowed Per Game	21.1	26.3
Yards Allowed	303.3	336.3
Pass Yards Allowed	179.1	202.3
Rush Yards Allowed	124.1	134.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

SMU vs Syracuse prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is SMU -9.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected SMU 34.0, Syracuse 24.0 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Syracuse 28%, SMU 72%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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