NCAAFSat 11:00 AM CTCarter-Finley Stadium

California Golden Bears at NC State Wolfpack

TV · ACC Network

Sat 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Spread

NCSU -8.5

53%

At lock CAL 23.84–33.71 NCSU · NCSU by 9.9 pts vs NCSU -8.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

J. Sagapolutele · CAL
QB
A. Mohammed · CAL
RB
C. Hendricks · CAL
WR
C. Bailey · NCSU
QB
J. Scott · NCSU
RB
K. Jackson · NCSU
WR

California Golden Bears

3-5 · L2

187 PF · 253 PA

23.84

Projected

NC State Wolfpack

3-4 · L2 · computer pick

226 PF · 197 PA

33.71

CAL 29%NCSU 71%

At lock: projected CAL 23.84–33.71 NCSU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

NCSU -10.1

NCSU -8.5

Total

57.5

Gap: +1.6 margin, +0.0 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: CAL vs NCSU

The model

How this number was built

CAL 23.84–33.71 NCSU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
NCSU -0.0 vs CAL -6.0 · pred margin +9.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +2.7 vs -3.3 · model NCSU 35.1–22.5 CAL
Home field
+3.0 pts to NCSU
Record
NCSU 3-4 · CAL 3-5
Market prior
Blended 67% toward NCSU -8.5 / total 57.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele
Pass 149/219, 1555 YDS, 10 TD, 5 INT
Adam Mohammed
Rush 73 CAR, 336 YDS, 3 TD
Chase Hendricks
Rec 54 REC, 498 YDS, 3 TD

CJ Bailey
Pass 143/219, 1763 YDS, 11 TD, 4 INT
Jayden Scott
Rush 62 CAR, 358 YDS, 4 TD
Keenan Jackson
Rec 30 REC, 456 YDS, 6 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CAL	NCSU
Points Per Game	23.4	32.3
Total Yards	369.3	419.9
Yards Passing	285.3	257.6
Yards Rushing	84.0	162.3
Points Allowed Per Game	31.6	28.1
Yards Allowed	399.4	380.0
Pass Yards Allowed	210.0	240.7
Rush Yards Allowed	189.4	139.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

California vs NC State prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is NCSU -8.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected California 23.8, NC State 33.7 when the pick locked. Model win probability: NC State 71%, California 29%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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