NCAAFSat 11:00 AM CTHard Rock Stadium

Pittsburgh Panthers at #1 Miami Hurricanes

TV · ESPN

Sat 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Spread

PITT +21

54%

PITT 15.79–36.10 MIA

Pittsburgh Panthers

5-2 · L2 · computer pick

230 PF · 115 PA

15.79

Projected

#1Miami Hurricanes

6-0 · W6

291 PF · 84 PA

36.10

PITT 10%MIA 90%

Projected PITT 15.79–36.10 MIA

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

MIA -18.9

MIA -21.0

Total

52.7

51.5

Gap: -2.1 margin, +1.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: PITT vs MIA

The model

How this number was built

PITT 15.79–36.10 MIA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
MIA +26.5 vs PITT +9.2 · pred margin +20.3
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +15.6 vs +7.7 · model MIA 35.6–19.9 PITT
Home field
+3.0 pts to MIA
Record
MIA 6-0 · PITT 5-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward MIA -21 / total 51.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Mason Heintschel
Pass 98/148, 1304 YDS, 14 TD, 1 INT
Damon Ferguson Jr.
Rush 83 CAR, 438 YDS, 3 TD
Cataurus Hicks
Rec 26 REC, 500 YDS, 4 TD

Darian Mensah
Pass 135/167, 1764 YDS, 18 TD, 1 INT
Javian Mallory
Rush 52 CAR, 397 YDS, 5 TD
Malachi Toney
Rec 50 REC, 758 YDS, 8 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	PITT	MIA
Points Per Game	32.9	48.5
Total Yards	450.1	559.5
Yards Passing	284.6	333.0
Yards Rushing	165.6	226.5
Points Allowed Per Game	16.4	14.0
Yards Allowed	306.3	281.8
Pass Yards Allowed	249.0	223.3
Rush Yards Allowed	57.3	58.5

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Pitt vs Miami prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is PITT +21, with a 54% model probability. The model projects Pitt 15.8, Miami 36.1. Model win probability: Miami 90%, Pitt 10%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day