NCAAFFri 9:30 PM CTStanford Stadium

NC State Wolfpack at Stanford Cardinal

TV · ESPN

Fri 9:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

NCSU -7

54%

NCSU 31.78–23.77 STAN

NC State Wolfpack

3-3 · L1 · computer pick

198 PF · 166 PA

31.78

Projected

Stanford Cardinal

3-4 · W1

128 PF · 256 PA

23.77

NCSU 69%STAN 31%

Projected NCSU 31.78–23.77 STAN

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

NCSU -10.1

NCSU -7.0

Total

55.7

55.5

Gap: -3.1 margin, +0.2 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NCSU vs STAN

The model

How this number was built

NCSU 31.78–23.77 STAN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
STAN -11.4 vs NCSU +1.1 · pred margin -8.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -6.0 vs +3.5 · model STAN 22.2–33.8 NCSU
Home field
+3.0 pts to STAN
Record
STAN 3-4 · NCSU 3-3
Market prior
Blended 68% toward NCSU -7 / total 55.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

CJ Bailey
Pass 126/189, 1507 YDS, 9 TD, 4 INT
Jayden Scott
Rush 62 CAR, 358 YDS, 4 TD
Keenan Jackson
Rec 27 REC, 400 YDS, 5 TD

Davis Warren
Pass 141/234, 1630 YDS, 7 TD, 2 INT
Micah Ford
Rush 114 CAR, 529 YDS, 8 TD
Caden High
Rec 21 REC, 337 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NCSU	STAN
Points Per Game	33.0	18.3
Total Yards	426.3	342.9
Yards Passing	257.8	239.4
Yards Rushing	168.5	103.4
Points Allowed Per Game	27.7	36.6
Yards Allowed	363.8	452.0
Pass Yards Allowed	230.3	255.4
Rush Yards Allowed	133.5	196.6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

NC State vs Stanford prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is NCSU -7, with a 54% model probability. The model projects NC State 31.8, Stanford 23.8. Model win probability: Stanford 31%, NC State 69%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day