NCAAFFri 6:00 PM CTScott Stadium

Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Cavaliers

TV · ESPN

Fri 6:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 46.5

54%

DUKE 22.81–24.20 UVA

Duke Blue Devils

4-2 · L2

190 PF · 96 PA

22.81

Projected

Virginia Cavaliers

4-3 · L1

210 PF · 138 PA

24.20

DUKE 47%UVA 53%

Projected DUKE 22.81–24.20 UVA

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

UVA -1.1

UVA -1.5

Total

48.1

46.5

Gap: -0.4 margin, +1.6 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: DUKE vs UVA

The model

How this number was built

DUKE 22.81–24.20 UVA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
UVA +5.6 vs DUKE +7.8 · pred margin +1.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +5.9 vs +6.9 · model UVA 26.7–25.0 DUKE
Home field
+3.0 pts to UVA
Record
UVA 4-3 · DUKE 4-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward UVA -1.5 / total 46.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Walker Eget
Pass 108/172, 1229 YDS, 8 TD, 2 INT
Nate Sheppard
Rush 138 CAR, 820 YDS, 8 TD
Nate Sheppard
Rec 28 REC, 259 YDS, 4 TD

Beau Pribula
Pass 104/159, 1211 YDS, 13 TD, 1 INT
Jekail Middlebrook
Rush 81 CAR, 396 YDS, 3 TD
Da'Shawn Martin
Rec 15 REC, 225 YDS, 5 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	DUKE	UVA
Points Per Game	31.7	30.0
Total Yards	442.7	362.0
Yards Passing	233.2	205.1
Yards Rushing	209.5	156.9
Points Allowed Per Game	16.0	19.7
Yards Allowed	292.7	326.6
Pass Yards Allowed	200.2	173.9
Rush Yards Allowed	92.5	152.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Duke vs Virginia prediction · Oct 23, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 46.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projects Duke 22.8, Virginia 24.2. Model win probability: Virginia 53%, Duke 47%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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