NCAAFSat 11:00 AM CTGerald J. Ford Stadium

California Golden Bears at #23 SMU Mustangs

TV · CW

Sat 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Spread

CAL +19.5

53%

CAL 17.41–35.97 SMU

California Golden Bears

3-4 · L1 · computer pick

167 PF · 194 PA

17.41

Projected

#23SMU Mustangs

5-1 · W3

196 PF · 128 PA

35.97

CAL 13%SMU 87%

Projected CAL 17.41–35.97 SMU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

SMU -16.6

SMU -19.5

Total

53.1

53.5

Gap: -2.9 margin, -0.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: CAL vs SMU

The model

How this number was built

CAL 17.41–35.97 SMU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
SMU +9.8 vs CAL -3.9 · pred margin +18.6
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +6.9 vs -1.4 · model SMU 34.3–18.0 CAL
Home field
+3.0 pts to SMU
Record
SMU 5-1 · CAL 3-4
Market prior
Blended 68% toward SMU -19.5 / total 53.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele
Pass 122/182, 1290 YDS, 9 TD, 5 INT
Adam Mohammed
Rush 73 CAR, 336 YDS, 3 TD
Chase Hendricks
Rec 47 REC, 415 YDS, 2 TD

Kevin Jennings
Pass 140/192, 1834 YDS, 16 TD, 5 INT
Kendrick Raphael
Rush 99 CAR, 542 YDS, 6 TD
Yamir Knight
Rec 35 REC, 418 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CAL	SMU
Points Per Game	23.9	32.7
Total Yards	378.4	466.7
Yards Passing	288.1	325.2
Yards Rushing	90.3	141.5
Points Allowed Per Game	27.7	21.3
Yards Allowed	386.1	303.0
Pass Yards Allowed	206.3	164.8
Rush Yards Allowed	179.9	138.2

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

California vs SMU prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is CAL +19.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projects California 17.4, SMU 36.0. Model win probability: SMU 87%, California 13%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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