NCAAFSat 1:00 PM CTFolsom Field

Kansas State Wildcats at Colorado Buffaloes

TV · TNT

Sat 1:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

KSU -2.5

54%

At lock KSU 26.35–22.14 COLO · KSU by 4.2 pts vs KSU -2.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

A. Johnson · KSU
QB
J. Tibbs · KSU
WR
I. Wilson · COLO
QB
J. Smith · COLO
RB
J. Williams · COLO
WR

Kansas State Wildcats

4-3 · L1 · computer pick

230 PF · 148 PA

26.35

Projected

Colorado Buffaloes

2-5 · L5

141 PF · 211 PA

22.14

KSU 60%COLO 40%

At lock: projected KSU 26.35–22.14 COLO

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

KSU -6.8

KSU -2.5

Total

49.1

47.5

Gap: -4.3 margin, +1.6 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: KSU vs COLO

The model

How this number was built

KSU 26.35–22.14 COLO · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
COLO -1.9 vs KSU +5.7 · pred margin -3.9
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -3.9 vs +5.5 · model COLO 20.6–32.1 KSU
Home field
+3.0 pts to COLO
Record
COLO 2-5 · KSU 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward KSU -2.5 / total 47.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Avery Johnson
Pass 118/187, 1301 YDS, 10 TD, 3 INT
Avery Johnson
Rush 51 CAR, 462 YDS, 3 TD
Jaron Tibbs
Rec 34 REC, 325 YDS, 4 TD

Isaac Wilson
Pass 77/128, 979 YDS, 6 TD, 7 INT
JaQuail Smith
Rush 64 CAR, 298 YDS
Joseph Williams
Rec 46 REC, 643 YDS, 5 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	KSU	COLO
Points Per Game	32.9	20.1
Total Yards	438.0	394.9
Yards Passing	220.4	266.6
Yards Rushing	217.6	128.3
Points Allowed Per Game	21.1	30.1
Yards Allowed	305.3	391.6
Pass Yards Allowed	147.1	253.0
Rush Yards Allowed	158.1	138.6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Kansas St vs Colorado prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is KSU -2.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Kansas St 26.4, Colorado 22.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Colorado 40%, Kansas St 60%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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