NCAAFSat 2:30 PM CTAmon G. Carter Stadium

Kansas Jayhawks at TCU Horned Frogs

TV · FS1

Sat 2:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

KU +5.5

50%

At lock KU 21.14–26.46 TCU · TCU by 5.3 pts vs KU +5.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

I. Marshall · KU
QB
D. Edwards · KU
RB
N. McMillan · KU
WR
J. Craig · TCU
QB
J. Payne · TCU
RB
E. Small · TCU
WR

Kansas Jayhawks

3-4 · W1 · computer pick

217 PF · 168 PA

21.14

Projected

TCU Horned Frogs

3-4 · L1

164 PF · 97 PA

26.46

KU 37%TCU 63%

At lock: projected KU 21.14–26.46 TCU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

TCU -5.6

TCU -5.5

Total

47.6

47.5

Gap: +0.1 margin, +0.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: KU vs TCU

The model

How this number was built

KU 21.14–26.46 TCU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
TCU +7.3 vs KU +4.3 · pred margin +5.5
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +5.3 vs +4.2 · model TCU 26.4–21.4 KU
Home field
+3.0 pts to TCU
Record
TCU 3-4 · KU 3-4
Market prior
Blended 67% toward TCU -5.5 / total 47.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Isaiah Marshall
Pass 105/196, 1506 YDS, 11 TD, 7 INT
Dylan Edwards
Rush 105 CAR, 531 YDS, 4 TD
Nik McMillan
Rec 25 REC, 466 YDS, 5 TD

Jaden Craig
Pass 162/240, 2066 YDS, 11 TD, 6 INT
Jeremy Payne
Rush 88 CAR, 429 YDS, 2 TD
Ed Small
Rec 38 REC, 514 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	KU	TCU
Points Per Game	31.0	23.4
Total Yards	445.4	405.4
Yards Passing	238.1	295.1
Yards Rushing	207.3	110.3
Points Allowed Per Game	24.0	13.9
Yards Allowed	350.0	264.3
Pass Yards Allowed	183.1	158.9
Rush Yards Allowed	166.9	105.4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Kansas vs TCU prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is KU +5.5, with a 50% model probability. The model projected Kansas 21.1, TCU 26.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: TCU 63%, Kansas 37%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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