NCAAFFri 6:30 PM CTAcrisure Bounce House

Baylor Bears at UCF Knights

TV · ESPN

Fri 6:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 47.5

54%

At lock BAY 24.80–24.36 UCF · 1.7 pts over 47.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

D. Lagway · BAY
QB
D. Pendergrass · BAY
RB
G. Freeman · BAY
WR
K. Jenkins · UCF
QB
D. Watson · UCF
RB
J. Derry · UCF
WR

Baylor Bears

4-3 · L2

204 PF · 113 PA

24.80

Projected

UCF Knights

4-3 · W1

229 PF · 161 PA

24.36

BAY 52%UCF 48%

At lock: projected BAY 24.80–24.36 UCF

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

UCF -0.9

BAY -1.5

Total

49.1

47.5

Gap: +2.4 margin, +1.6 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: BAY vs UCF

The model

How this number was built

BAY 24.80–24.36 UCF · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
UCF +6.6 vs BAY +9.1 · pred margin -0.7
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +4.3 vs +5.3 · model UCF 27.1–25.4 BAY
Home field
+3.0 pts to UCF
Record
UCF 4-3 · BAY 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward BAY -1.5 / total 47.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

DJ Lagway
Pass 113/217, 1352 YDS, 9 TD, 4 INT
Dawson Pendergrass
Rush 94 CAR, 331 YDS, 2 TD
Gavin Freeman
Rec 58 REC, 678 YDS, 2 TD

Keyone Jenkins
Pass 108/159, 1099 YDS, 11 TD, 3 INT
Duke Watson
Rush 85 CAR, 577 YDS, 3 TD
Josh Derry
Rec 34 REC, 358 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BAY	UCF
Points Per Game	29.1	32.7
Total Yards	425.0	370.3
Yards Passing	278.9	207.0
Yards Rushing	146.1	163.3
Points Allowed Per Game	16.1	23.0
Yards Allowed	340.1	357.7
Pass Yards Allowed	236.0	239.7
Rush Yards Allowed	104.1	118.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Baylor vs UCF prediction · Oct 30, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 47.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Baylor 24.8, UCF 24.4 when the pick locked. Model win probability: UCF 48%, Baylor 52%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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