NCAAFSat 11:00 AM CTAmon G. Carter Stadium

West Virginia Mountaineers at TCU Horned Frogs

TV · ESPN2

Sat 11:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Spread

TCU -8.5

52%

WVU 23.48–32.90 TCU

West Virginia Mountaineers

4-3 · W1

263 PF · 238 PA

23.48

Projected

TCU Horned Frogs

3-3 · W1 · computer pick

144 PF · 73 PA

32.90

WVU 28%TCU 72%

Projected WVU 23.48–32.90 TCU

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

TCU -11.3

TCU -8.5

Total

56.2

56.5

Gap: +2.8 margin, -0.3 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: WVU vs TCU

The model

How this number was built

WVU 23.48–32.90 TCU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
TCU +8.6 vs WVU +0.4 · pred margin +9.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +5.8 vs +0.6 · model TCU 33.4–21.9 WVU
Home field
+3.0 pts to TCU
Record
TCU 3-3 · WVU 4-3
Market prior
Blended 68% toward TCU -8.5 / total 56.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Michael Hawkins Jr.
Pass 83/144, 1519 YDS, 10 TD, 1 INT
Cam Cook
Rush 168 CAR, 833 YDS, 7 TD
DJ Epps
Rec 22 REC, 556 YDS, 5 TD

Jaden Craig
Pass 129/193, 1694 YDS, 10 TD, 5 INT
Jeremy Payne
Rush 88 CAR, 429 YDS, 2 TD
Ed Small
Rec 35 REC, 494 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	WVU	TCU
Points Per Game	37.6	24.0
Total Yards	497.1	392.3
Yards Passing	224.7	282.3
Yards Rushing	272.4	110.0
Points Allowed Per Game	34.0	12.2
Yards Allowed	483.9	264.2
Pass Yards Allowed	310.1	172.2
Rush Yards Allowed	173.7	92.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

West Virginia vs TCU prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is TCU -8.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projects West Virginia 23.5, TCU 32.9. Model win probability: TCU 72%, West Virginia 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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